Link to one of these publications, perhaps? Excess mortality studies conducted by independent researchers with the time to audit and analyze in detail will probably be great to improve our understanding ex post facto, but quick if a bit dirty is urgently needed for ‘situational awareness.’. Some election maps, however, have broken this tradition by simply coloring each areal unit with a red-blue mixture linked to voting ratio data—resulting in an "unclassified choropleth map". I hear you; Lewis County is the reddest county west of the Cascades. In Maine, where I live, we have had very small numbers in the state over all, the most being confined to the southern border counties. I am not sure what you are referring to.

Thus far, you might think that the ‘blue counties’ ought to account for most of the Covid mortality. Were it a significant difference, this ratio would perhaps be an issue as President T Rump excused holding his rally in Oklahoma, a state with now a four-fold increase in the infection rate, because that increase was a big percentage but applied to a very small number. One could go on, but the basic picture is clear: there are confounding variables that skew the mortality toward ‘blue counties’, but also very salient examples showing that you don’t by any means have to be a poor, rural, African-American to die of Covid. Note that election maps of all kinds are subject to errors of interpretation.

But IMO we really need to be responding with the least possible delay, which means we can’t afford to wait weeks for better quality data. By the way, if Republicans ever come to their senses and he runs for president, watch out.

I think we can only stand by and let them take it on the chin. Later, in the 1888 presidential election, Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison used maps that coded blue for the Republicans, the color perceived to represent the Union and "Lincoln's Party", and red for the Democrats. Oh I get it. This is most evident in the Southern United States, where the state Democratic Party organizations tend to be more conservative than the national party, especially on social issues. [23], Finally, there are problems associated with human perception. One imagines there is quite a lot of strain on underfunded bureaucracies whose data throughput has expanded drastically. I have been inclined to think that deaths are the best signal.

In 2008, college graduates were split equally; those with postgraduate degrees voted for Obama by an 18% margin. [32][33][34] In 1976, only 27 percent of U.S. voters lived in landslide counties, which increased to 39 percent by 1992. I agree, Massachusetts is most definitely not a red state. The paradigm has come under criticism on several fronts. As treatments are developed and maybe improved, as vaccines are tried and maybe work, I expect we would see deaths fall. The states leadership in party affiliation is pretty well balanced with 25 Democratic and 26 Republicans. A large county or state in area may have fewer voters than a small one in area, for example. elections. I live in a red county in a blue state.

Also, I have no particular beef with using the quickly available data, but really… don’t we already know what we need to do? I’m not going to try again, since I think my points should be obvious. Period. Try google scholar.]. It’s probably a bit higher than strictly proportionate–you’d have to look at populations to really know that–but nowhere even close to being a majority, let alone “almost all.”. We need to


In the 1996 election, 31 U.S. states were blue (i.e. [25] All these points should be taken into account when looking at election maps. Other data like this from John Hopkins University are not so noisy. Perhaps it is worth noting that most of Richland County, which includes the state capital, Columbia, is under the new mandatory masking ordinance there–though I don’t think that explains the differential above, as there has been insufficient time since its introduction. The six leading SC counties for Covid incidence per capita are: Lee: 1,681.72 (cases per 100k); 22 dead; 63.4% African American; $23,378 median household income (2010 census) See global evidence.”. For example, due to the simultaneous contrast effect, the Bezold effect, and other factors, an area shaded light red surrounded by areas shaded dark red will appear even lighter. States now considered in the federal "red zone" are: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin. ", "Ideas & Trends; One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State", "Those Special Election Bells, Whistles and, Yes, Some Numbers, Too", "A Divided Government Remains, and With It the Prospect of Further Combat", "Learn the signs of your political colors", "Ideas & Trends; One State, Two State, Red State, Blue StateΨ Page 2 – New York Times", "Rules and Principles of Scientific Data Visualization", "Keynote Address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention", "Maps and cartograms of the 2004 U.S. presidential election results", "We Are All Purple: The Destructive Lie of Red States and Blue States", "Cartographic variations on the presidential election 2000 theme", "For a Conservative, Life Is Sweet in Sugar Land, Tex", "Electorally competitive counties have grown scarcer in recent decades", "The Divide Between Red and Blue America Grew Even Deeper in 2016". The lack of clear classes make these purple maps highly prone to the problems of color perception described above. These county-by-county and district-by-district maps reveal that the true nature of the divide is between urban areas/inner suburbs and suburbs/rural areas. [18], Thus, red and blue became fixed in the media and in many people's minds, despite the fact that the Democratic and Republican parties had not officially chosen colors. As a group, young adults under age 40 sided with Obama. Yeah, that’s maybe what burns me the worst. In his address before the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston, Barack Obama spoke on the issue of blue states and red states, saying: "The pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into red states and blue states — red states for Republicans, and blue states for Democrats. [24] Large areas of color appear more saturated than small areas of the same color.

If you’re competent to do anything with it, do please check my work.

'"[20], There are several problems in creating and interpreting election maps. I have seen similar analyses from other sources. Maps of this type are called choropleth maps, which have several well-known problems that can result in interpretation bias.

Nextly, they’ll export it back to us. Like you, they resort to ad hominem when they have no evidence. Catholic and Protestant Christians were more likely to vote for McCain than for Obama, whereas voters of other faiths, as well as secular atheist and agnostic voters, predominantly favored Obama.
A purple state refers to a swing state where both Democratic and Republican candidates receive strong support without an overwhelming majority of support for either party. A federal report assessing states' latest COVID-19 data placed more than 40 percent of the U.S. in "red zone" territory due to increasing virus diagnoses per capita. Rene Clabaugh, You clearly have not even looked at the COVID data from JHU or anywhere else if you claim they are not noisy. Fairfield: 22,712 (38th) See why nearly a quarter of a million subscribers begin their day with the Starting 5. To continue reading login or create an account. Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com. [21][22] Another problem relates to data classification.

Quickly thereafter, the term Purple America permeated the political blogosphere and entered the public lexicon as a way of stating that the United States is not as divided as the political pundits would have the people believe.

Only 1 month you said I should vote blue, does that make sense?

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